Determinants of Vehicle Holding Time and Scrappage

Term Start:

August 16, 2025

Term End:

August 15, 2026

Budget:

$60,000

Keywords:

Data Collection, Machine Learning, Travel Demand, Vehicle Fleet, Vehicle Transactions

Thrust Area(s):

Data Collection Mechanisms

University Lead:

University of Washington

Researcher(s):

Don MacKenzie

The average age of vehicles on U.S. roads has reached a record high of 12.6 years, indicating that people are holding on to cars longer than ever before retiring them. This project will investigate how vehicle attributes, age, cumulative mileage, and ownership and maintenance history affect consumers’ decisions to sell or retire vehicles. Understanding the drivers of vehicle holding time and scrappage (retirement) are essential to forecasting demand for vehicle travel, traffic, and new vehicle sales. We will compile large-scale data from vehicle history reports (e.g., CARFAX) and online used-car listings to analyze the determinants of used vehicle survival and list price. Key vehicle factors such as repair history and price, along with household characteristics such as ages of individuals, rural versus urban residence, and number of workers, will be evaluated for their effects on vehicle disposition. The research will yield insights into how evolving vehicle features and market conditions affect fleet turnover. Anticipated outcomes include guidance on how to anticipate and model the effects of changing vehicle lifetimes on the US transportation sector, auto market, growth of features and attributes fleetwide.

Project scope

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