An Evaluation of the Long-Term Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Public Transportation Use

Term Start:

June 1, 2024

Term End:

May 31, 2025

Budget:

$150,000

Keywords:

Covid-19, Mode Choice, Public Transportation, Transit Ridership

Thrust Area(s):

Data Modeling and Analytic Tools, Equity and Understanding User Needs

University Lead:

The University of Texas at Austin

Researcher(s):

Chandra Bhat

Public transportation has experienced rapid changes in ridership over the past several years, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous studies have focused on how health concerns and social distancing/lockdown measures during the pandemic resulted in the immediate decline in public transportation usage. For instance, in many cities within the US, transit ridership declined to a low of 10-40% of pre-pandemic levels during the first few months of 2020, closely mirroring office closures and work-from-home periods put into place during the pandemic. However, the long-term impacts of pandemic-era changes in public transportation use are still unclear. Overall transit ridership in 2023 had only rebounded to about 70% of the 2019 levels in the US, revealing the continuing impacts of the pandemic. Thus, it is evident that a broader study is needed to assess the ongoing and long-term effects of the pandemic on mode choice, and public transportation use in particular. Given the clear benefits of the use of public transportation, including its contribution to addressing climate change and ability to provide broader accessibility to vulnerable travelers, it is critical to understand and assess the future of public transportation in the post-pandemic world.

 In this context, we explore the changing dynamics of public transportation ridership by examining changes in public transportation usage since the onset of the pandemic, as well as the possible return to pre-pandemic behaviors. In contrast to many recent studies that predominantly examine these trends at an aggregate level or rely on stated intention questions, we use the actual experienced public transportation intensities and changes reported at an individual level. In addition, we consider stated intentions about the permanence of these changes in transit use, revealing the extent to which these pandemic-era changes may be temporary. To our knowledge, no other study since the pandemic has explored the transient nature of changes in public transportation use in this way. Using data from the 2022 National Household Travel Survey, we model these outcomes using a joint framework that includes (a) the reported change in public transportation use during the pandemic, (b) expectations about the permanence of this change, and (c) current public transportation use frequency. Together, these results reveal heterogeneity in current public transportation use and differences in the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on public transportation use among different demographic groups. The use of a joint modeling framework accounts for the possibility that unobserved factors that cause individuals to adjust their public transportation use during the pandemic may also impact the permanence of the changes and the current intensity of public transportation. The findings of this study hold significant implications for transportation planners, travel demand modelers, and policymakers, offering important insights into ongoing trends in public transportation behavior and identifying groups of individuals who are more inclined to return to previous levels of public transportation use.

Project scope

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