Evolution of Mode Choice: Examining the Relationship Between Telecommuting and Transit Use

Term Start:

September 1, 2023

Term End:

May 31, 2025

Budget:

$150,000

Keywords:

Emerging Technologies, Revenues, Transportation Infrastructure

Thrust Area(s):

Understanding User Needs

University Lead:

Arizona State University

Researcher(s):

Ram Pendyala; Irfan Batur

This project aims to quantify the impacts of telecommuting on transit use. Data for this analysis is derived from the 2019 and 2023 editions of the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) household travel survey and a joint model of telecommuting and transit use frequency is estimated to understand the nature of the relationship in the pre- and post-pandemic periods. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between telecommuting and transit use. Lower transit frequency was observed at both the highest and lowest levels of telecommuting, while higher transit frequency was associated with medium or hybrid levels of telecommuting. This pattern became even more pronounced in 2023. Computations of average treatment effects show that transitioning from medium-level (hybrid) telecommuting to non-telecommuting resulted in a 21 percent decrease in transit use in 2019, and a steeper 35 percent decrease in 2023. Similarly, moving from hybrid to frequent telecommuting led to a six percent reduction in transit use in 2019, and a larger nine percent reduction in 2023. These findings suggest that the loss in transit ridership in the post-pandemic era is likely to persist and that compelling workers to return to the workplace full-time is unlikely to yield significant gains unless transit agencies find innovative ways to attract non-telecommuters (full commuters) back to transit. Instead, embracing a hybrid work modality while providing incentives to promote transit use may yield greater benefits.

Project scope
Final report

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